Noynoy drops to 31% in survey

By Charlie V. Manalo (The Daily Tribune) Jan 19, 2010

http://www.tribune.net.ph/headlines/20100119hed5.html

Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino still leads in the surveys, but his numbers have dropped dramatically, with respondents now giving him only a 31 percent vote, in the latest survey conducted by The Center.

This was bared by Ed Malay, executive director of The Issues and Advocacy Center (The Center), following its non-commissioned nationwide survey on Jan. 5 to 12, 2010.

In the The Center’s latest survey, Noynoy paced Villar with 31 percent rating with the latter garnering 24 percent approval from the 1,200 respondents nationwide.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro appeared to have gained the votes that Aquino lost, as he registered a two digit vote, at 10 percent.

Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada’s ranking and figures remained unchanged, at 19 percent of the vote.

Malay said that while technically, there are only five presidential bets who can be considered to be still in the race - Aquino, Villar, Estrada, Teodoro, and Sen. Richard Gordon, the ratings had hardly changed with the changes in the rankings from among the senatorial aspirants remaining hardly noticeable.

What may be seen as signifiant is that the sons of some of the previous political leaders of this country, according to Malay, are all in the thick of the senatorial race and prominent among them are Rep. Teofisto “TG” Guingona, son of former Vice President Teofisto Guingona; Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, son of the late Ferdinand Marcos; Rep. Rozzano Biazon, son of Sen. Rodolfo Biazon. Another son of a former leader in Congress, businessman Joey de Venecia, the son of former Speaker Rep. Jose de Venecia Jr., is tied in 13th to 14th places.
In its latest survey in which the 1,200 respondents were asked to choose who among those in the list of eight presidential candidates will they vote for if the presidential elections will be held today, some 31 percent or 372 out of the 1,200 respondents chose Aquino which is some seven points clear of second-running Villar whose 24 percent (288 respondents) rating is almost the same as the rating he posted in the survey of The Center toward the end of 2009.

Estrada remains in third position with 19 percent followed by Teodoro who now has 10 percent while Gordon is in fifth with 5 percent.

The latest survey of The Center has a margin of error of 2,8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. Some 7.5 percent of respondents said they still don’t know whom will they vote for.

The Center explained that the ratings which hardly changed from the figures it gathered in the last quarter of 2009 could be traced to the fact that the Jan. 5 to 12, 2010 survey came right after the noise of the holiday season has cleared and the respondents may still be feeling the effects of the revelry rather than the pomp and pageantry of the political season.

The vice presidential race is precariously close between Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas (32 percent) and Sen. Loren Legarda (28 percent) with Makati Mayor Jojo Binay at third place with 16 percent and former MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando kept his fourth-place position with just 8 percent.

The figures, according to The Center, will definitely change when the official 90-day campaign period starts next month as the 10 presidential candidates are expected to fight for every television and radio airtime spots that will be made available by the broadcasting networks as well as for every inch of newspaper space whether it be in the broadsheets or in the tabloids.

Malay said advertising expenses of the leading candidates will most probably reach between P500 million to P800 million between Feb. 10, 2010 and May 8, 2010 which is the last day of campaigning by the candidates in both the national and local elections.

In addition to these humungous advertising expense, candidates to national positions from the president to those running in the senate will most probably spend between P30-million to P80-million in public relations and media relations costs with transportation and lodging expenses taking up the bulk of this particular expenditure.

Malay said the people will most probably start to narrow their choices by end-April and that majority of the voters especially in the countryside will most probably make their final choice some two days before the elections or on the eve of the elections as he insists that while surveys may be a good gauge to track down the voting patterns and preferences, the survey trends can still be reversed and or neutralized by a systematic campaign especially if a political party participating in the coming elections has the capacity, the network, and the logistics to make this happen.

Aquino led the survey in the super regions: National Capital Region where he posted 34 percent although the figures in Luzon and Visayas remain to be a toss-up between the two top contenders with Aquino leading Villar by just three points in Luzon (31 percent to 28 percent ) and five points in the Visayas (32 percent to 27 percent).

Incumbent senators who are running for reelection, namely: Senators Jinggoy Estrada (48 percent), Pia Cayetano (46 percent);, Ramon “Bong”Revilla (44 percent); Miriam Defensor Santiago (43 percent); Juan Ponce Enrile (39 percent) and Lito Lapid (31 percent) are almost assured of getting reelected on May 10, 2010. Some 82 percent of the respondents also said their decision is influenced by the TV advertisements of the candidates On the issue of the Automated Election System (AES), The Center survey showed that 47 percent of the respondents do not trust the automated poll system while only 26 percent said they do for a net trust index of minus 21 percent.